Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:46:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cad…0724 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 329d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$1
world 27% +$1
politics 22% $0
sports 9% $0
crypto 5% $0
culture 4% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.9% -10.3% 62% 0% -9.3%
all 38 -1.6% -11.0% 34% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

329d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage329d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $45 +$1 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $32 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 22 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $8 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $12 −$2 -18%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Aug 05 $1 $0 +6%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 04 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 03 $61 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 03 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Aug 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Aug 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $35 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 01 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $3 $0 -12%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Jul 31 $54 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 31 $7 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 30 $60 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $61 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 30 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $34 16h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $33 20h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 25h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 27h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $16 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $17 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 28d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 28d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 28d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $2 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $30 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $32 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $33 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $8 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $26 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $19 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $15 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $32 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $13 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $13 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $30 31d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $2 31d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $32 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $15 33d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $17 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.61 · official $36.97 (match) · 147 history records