Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8C 0x8cad…3104 other 56 markets active 10h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$70 (+22%) realized +$53 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$69
sports 23% +$10
tech 3% −$8
crypto 2% −$1
politics 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +7.4% -2.9% 48% 48% -2.5%
≤30d 33 +1.9% -7.8% 48% 48% +19.3%
≤90d 36 -2.3% -11.6% 47% 47% +14.1%
all 36 -2.3% -11.6% 47% 47% +14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 47% +14.1%
10% -20.1% 47% +3.2%
15% -27.8% 44% -6.8%
20% -34.9% 33% -15.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions18
Markets (closed)36 / 56
History coverage39d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 40¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+26%)
Will 6+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 64¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+122%)
Will Mexico be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 18¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+119%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 68¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+80%)
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? No 10¢ 16¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+55%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? Yes 32¢ 46¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+42%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 80¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? No 66¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 54¢ 49¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 66¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 46¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 4¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 +$4 +172%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 +$3 +67%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$21 +414%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +70%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$9 +172%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup America May 21 $5 +$2 +48%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 21 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante May 20 $4 +$3 +65%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $4 −$3 -91%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $50 +$64 +129%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 19 $4 +$1 +29%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 17 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 27¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $2 23h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $3 23h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $3 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 30h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $5 31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 31h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $2 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 39¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14 BUY 8¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $5 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3d
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? BUY No 10¢ $5 3d
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 3d
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Will 6+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY No 29¢ $5 3d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 3d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 3d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.47 · official $117.47 (match) · 77 history records