Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:09:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8caf…e891 crypto 407 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-5%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%207W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$100
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -5.4% -14.4% 64% 58% -13.0%
≤30d 111 -6.4% -15.3% 62% 58% -12.0%
≤90d 407 -9.0% -17.7% 51% 44% -16.5%
all 407 -9.0% -17.7% 51% 44% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 44% -16.5%
10% -25.6% 25% -24.5%
15% -32.7% 15% -31.8%
20% -39.3% 6% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses207 / 200
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)407 / 407
History coverage62d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 407 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$3 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$2 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 15h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1000 history records