Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:35:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8C 0x8cb0…4fff crypto 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$94 (-4%) realized −$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate48%55W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$103
other 5% +$8
weather 2% −$42
sports 2% $0
culture 2% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 38 +9.6% -0.8% 24% 21% +1.9%
all 114 -9.3% -17.9% 48% 32% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 32% -13.9%
10% -25.8% 26% -22.1%
15% -32.9% 18% -29.6%
20% -39.5% 14% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses55 / 59
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)114 / 117
History coverage123d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 16 $2 +$10 +499%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 10 $2 +$15 +729%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 07 $2 +$12 +614%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 28 $2 +$12 +614%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $4 −$3 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $4 +$9 +221%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 21 $5 −$4 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 21 $6 +$2 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 18 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 15? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 17 $1 +$4 +450%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -90%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $40 +$29 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 14 Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 14 Mar 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ma Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ma Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 14? Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 14? Mar 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Ma Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ma Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Mar 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 73d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 73d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 73d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 79d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 79d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 79d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 79d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 79d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 79d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 80d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 80d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 80d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 80d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 82d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 82d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 82d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 84d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 84d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 84d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 84d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 84d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 87d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 87d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 87d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 87d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 88d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.85 · official $69.85 (match) · 256 history records