Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:27:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8cb1…233a
sports · 10 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
−$967 -40%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$789 · open −$178
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$947
Realized−$789
Unrealized−$178
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage56d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 4 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $516 $426 −$90 (-18%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $300 $278 −$21 (-7%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $181 $136 −$45 (-25%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $129 $108 −$22 (-17%)
Hellas Verona FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $261 $0 −$261 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
CD Nacional vs. FC Alverca: O/U 1.5 Apr 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Lille OSC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5 Apr 19 $198 −$198 -100%
Hellas Verona FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5 Apr 19 $265 −$261 -98%
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5 Apr 19 $227 +$39 +17%
FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5 Apr 18 $150 +$32 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 52% −$789
other 48% −$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $309 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $186 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $531 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $133 1h
Hellas Verona FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $115 55d
Hellas Verona FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $150 55d
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $266 55d
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $227 55d
Lille OSC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $198 56d
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $200 56d
CD Nacional vs. FC Alverca: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $200 56d
FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $150 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-64.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 -60.3% -64.1% 33% 33% -67.2%
all 6 -60.3% -64.1% 33% 33% -67.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.1% 33% -67.2%
10% -67.5% 0% -70.4%
15% -70.6% 0% -73.2%
20% -73.5% 0% -75.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $947.15 · official $947.15 (match) · 19 history records