Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:52:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cb2…996c other 477 markets active 2h ago coverage 846d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$829 (-15%) realized −$846 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%164W / 298L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days−$1,518
14 days−$1,194
30 days−$1,118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$107
crypto 35% −$510
sports 24% −$160
politics 2% +$1
tech 1% +$3
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 218 -60.7% -64.5% 11% 11% -71.0%
≤30d 286 -31.1% -37.6% 21% 21% -46.3%
≤90d 286 -31.1% -37.6% 21% 21% -46.3%
all 462 -16.4% -24.4% 35% 32% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 32% -23.7%
10% -31.6% 29% -31.0%
15% -38.2% 25% -37.7%
20% -44.3% 22% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

846d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized−$846
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses164 / 298
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions10
Markets (closed)462 / 477
History coverage846d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 462 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 40¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+41%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+39%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 100¢ $3 $27 +$24 (+809%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 33¢ 22¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-33%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-33%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 56¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 22¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists Yes 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 29 $3 +$7 +235%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 29 $3 +$39 +1275%
Deniz Undav: 3+ goals Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $5 +$1 +17%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $10 −$4 -35%
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $10 $0 +2%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $20 +$28 +140%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $26 −$25 -98%
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ assists Jun 26 $3 +$8 +250%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 +$19 +365%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ assists Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 25 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Trump pardon SBF by October 31? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $63 +$16 +25%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Deniz Undav: 3+ goals BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2h
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY 46¢ $5 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $6 4h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $5 5h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $5 5h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 5h
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 5h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 36¢ $10 39h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $20 2d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $26 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $26 3d
Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score AND Tunisia vs. Netherlan BUY 55¢ $5 3d
Daizen Maeda: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3d
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3d
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3d
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.39 · official $163.31 · 1017 history records