Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cb4…48ae crypto 94 markets active 1d ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$257 (+3%) realized +$257 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%40W / 54L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days+$288
14 days+$288
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$64
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -9.2% -17.8% 63% 54% -6.3%
≤30d 94 -25.0% -32.2% 43% 37% -8.8%
≤90d 94 -25.0% -32.2% 43% 37% -8.8%
all 94 -25.0% -32.2% 43% 37% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 37% -8.8%
10% -38.7% 30% -17.6%
15% -44.6% 22% -25.5%
20% -50.0% 14% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -38% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$43 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$257
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses40 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)94 / 94
History coverage25d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 94 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$21 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $471 +$295 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $348 +$124 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $186 +$162 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $1,046 −$1,046 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $67 +$12 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $169 +$114 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $216 −$65 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $742 +$218 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $550 +$131 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $570 +$245 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $385 +$185 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $333 +$49 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $292 +$43 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $522 −$15 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $164 +$79 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $128 +$36 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$32 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $12 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $24 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $24 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $11 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 26h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? SELL Yes 96¢ $13 26h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $766 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $471 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $348 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $186 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $731 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $314 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 212 history records