Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:29:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cb4…b997 tech 602 markets active 97d ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable tech specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$603 (-0%) realized +$4,525 · open −$5,128
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate55%327W / 269L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$535per market
Trades / day70.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$19,189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% −$5,478
tech 13% +$2,815
other 11% +$23
finance 8% −$3,243
sports 2% +$341
world 1% $0
crypto 0% +$26
culture 0% −$680
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +316.7% +277.0% 100% 100% +277.0%
≤30d 1 +316.7% +277.0% 100% 100% +277.0%
≤90d 49 +7.0% -3.2% 59% 49% -24.2%
all 596 +25.4% +13.5% 55% 38% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.5% 38% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here +2.6% 30% -19.1%
15% -7.3% 23% -27.0%
20% -16.4% 17% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +53% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$91 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$19,189
Realized+$4,525
Unrealized−$5,128
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses327 / 269
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)596 / 602
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$535
Trades / day70.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 596 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 80¢ $8,723 $13,869 +$5,146 (+59%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $8,723 $3,576 −$5,146 (-59%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? No 84¢ 100¢ $773 $923 +$150 (+19%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 83¢ 100¢ $415 $500 +$85 (+20%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? No 89¢ 100¢ $143 $161 +$18 (+12%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 81¢ 100¢ $105 $130 +$25 (+24%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 52¢ 100¢ $9 $17 +$8 (+92%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $26 $7 −$19 (-74%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? No 79¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 25 $20 +$64 +317%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Apr 23 $67 +$13 +20%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of March? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $405 end of March? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tesla reach $450 in March? Apr 02 $30 −$15 -50%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (HIGH) in March 2026? Apr 02 $73 −$73 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (HIGH) in March 2026? Apr 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in March 2026? Apr 02 $189 −$55 -29%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of March? Apr 02 $135 −$93 -69%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 end of March? Apr 02 $207 −$165 -80%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 end of March? Apr 02 $159 −$140 -88%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,100 on the final trading day of March Apr 02 $56 −$56 -100%
Will NVIDIA reach $208 in March? Apr 02 $39 −$39 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (HIGH) in March 2026? Apr 02 $129 −$129 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of March? Apr 02 $87 −$73 -84%
Will NVIDIA dip to $164 in March? Apr 02 $205 −$201 -98%
Will Amazon dip to $192 in March? Apr 02 $281 −$281 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of March? Apr 02 $331 −$317 -96%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of March? Apr 02 $402 −$388 -97%
Will NVIDIA dip to $152 in March? Apr 02 $168 −$168 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in March 2026? Apr 02 $167 −$167 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 02 $1,759 −$1,759 -100%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $138 end of March? Apr 02 $2 $0 +16%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $190 end of March? Apr 02 $1 $0 +33%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of March? Apr 02 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Meta (META) close above $720 end of March? Apr 02 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $4.00 end of March? Apr 02 $150 +$5 +4%
Will Tesla reach $435 in March? Apr 02 $6 +$3 +50%
Will Google reach $340 in March? Apr 02 $6 +$1 +16%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,000 on the final trading day of March Apr 02 $6 +$4 +75%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,700 on the final trading day of March Apr 02 $2 +$8 +354%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $270 end of March? Apr 02 $11 +$3 +30%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $240 end of March? Apr 02 $12 +$5 +39%
Will Netflix reach $140 in March? Apr 02 $17 +$1 +4%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in March 2026? Apr 02 $18 +$4 +22%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $200 end of March? Apr 02 $108 +$16 +15%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 end of March? Apr 02 $28 +$11 +38%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $148 end of March? Apr 02 $17 +$38 +223%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 end of March? Apr 02 $78 +$27 +35%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 end of March? Apr 02 $87 +$213 +245%
Will Netflix dip to $70 in March? Apr 02 $342 +$23 +7%
Will Amazon reach $224 in March? Apr 02 $208 +$192 +93%
Will Google reach $320 in March? Apr 02 $285 +$229 +80%
Will Netflix reach $105 in March? Apr 02 $232 +$252 +108%
Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 02 $205 +$295 +144%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of March? Apr 02 $364 +$246 +68%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 02 $615 +$61 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 02 $668 +$106 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 02 $4,936 +$225 +5%
Will Tesla dip to $353 in March? Mar 31 $129 +$167 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL Yes 53¢ $27 97d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 97d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? BUY Yes 53¢ $21 97d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $400-$410 on the final day of trading o BUY No 70¢ $6 110d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $390-$400 on the final day of trading o BUY Yes 15¢ $0 110d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 9 above $420? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 110d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 9 above $420? SELL No 88¢ $13 110d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 9 above $390? BUY No 16¢ $2 110d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 112d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? SELL Yes 6¢ $30 112d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $5.00-$6.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 63¢ $54 112d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading SELL No 48¢ $105 112d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 9 above $4.00? SELL Yes 96¢ $88 112d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $4.00 end of March? SELL Yes 83¢ $150 112d
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 9 above $385? SELL Yes 58¢ $39 112d
Will Tesla reach $420 in March? SELL Yes 48¢ $16 112d
Will Tesla reach $450 in March? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 112d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of March? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 112d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 end of March? SELL Yes 74¢ $4 112d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 on March 9? BUY No 84¢ $36 112d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 9 above $185? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 112d
Will NVIDIA reach $200 in March? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 112d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of March? SELL Yes 43¢ $42 112d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$110 on the final day of trading of SELL Yes 34¢ $16 112d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of th SELL No 90¢ $35 112d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 9 above $100? BUY No 62¢ $273 112d
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 9 above $210? SELL Yes 51¢ $4 112d
Will Amazon reach $224 in March? BUY No 55¢ $6 112d
Will Amazon reach $224 in March? BUY No 52¢ $21 112d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 end of March? SELL Yes 52¢ $19 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,189.39 · official $19,189.39 (match) · 3500 history records