Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:46:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
8C 0x8cba…e752 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$184 (+41%) realized +$403 · open −$219
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip
Net edge+47%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$58
sports 18% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+59.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +75.9% +59.2% 80% 80% +59.6%
≤30d 5 +75.9% +59.2% 80% 80% +59.6%
≤90d 5 +75.9% +59.2% 80% 80% +59.6%
all 5 +75.9% +59.2% 80% 80% +59.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +59.2% 80% +59.6%
10% +43.9% 60% +44.3%
15% +30.0% 60% +30.3%
20% +17.3% 40% +17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +76% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +76% · $-wt +76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$1 · ×53.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×215.3 per $1 lost it wins $215.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$403
Unrealized−$219
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $221 $2 −$219 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $41 +$87 +213%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $41 +$15 +36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $56 +$67 +121%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $50 +$6 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 59¢ $224 56m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $40 57m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $41 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $128 3h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $56 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 31¢ $41 5h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $123 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 44¢ $56 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 19¢ $56 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.68 · official $0.19 · 11 history records