Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:30:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
8C 0x8cbe…9f1b crypto 212 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$858 (+11%) realized +$858 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%110W / 102L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days−$8
14 days−$65
30 days+$752
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$752
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +0.6% -9.0% 83% 17% -10.1%
≤30d 212 +13.0% +2.3% 52% 42% -0.3%
≤90d 212 +13.0% +2.3% 52% 42% -0.3%
all 212 +13.0% +2.3% 52% 42% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.3% 42% -0.3%
10% ← realistic here -7.5% 42% -9.9%
15% -16.4% 39% -18.6%
20% -24.6% 37% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$29 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$858
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses110 / 102
Open positions0
Markets (closed)212 / 212
History coverage22d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 212 Trades
no open positions (86 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$23 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$40 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$15 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$27 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$50 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $28 +$21 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $24 −$23 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $38 −$36 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$19 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $54 +$16 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$49 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $49 +$21 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$64 +1074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $59 −$58 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $47 +$23 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $18 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$16 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$51 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $24 −$23 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $33 +$37 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $31 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $31 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $31 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $51 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $53 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 591 history records