Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:59:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8cc1…b9f8
weather · 236 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$3,304 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$364 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$364
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses102 / 261
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)363 / 236
History coverage23d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day150.6
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 1 History 363 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$338
7 days+$374
14 days+$147
30 days+$364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 3? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9? No 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 24? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 28? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 3? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 24? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 3? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 23? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 22? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 9 Jun 14 $0 $0 -112%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 4? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 19? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$12 -203%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 21? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 19? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 4? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 4? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 22? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 22? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 19? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 92% +$459
other 8% +$753
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $164 6m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $60 8m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $47 15m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $13 16m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $160 17m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 22m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 27m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 34m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 35m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 35m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 35m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 39m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 55m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 58m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 59m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 59m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 59m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 59m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 59m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 59m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 96¢ $233 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 97¢ $24 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 85¢ $43 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 80¢ $81 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 71¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 71¢ $46 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 197 -51.7% -56.3% 21% 12% -5.5%
≤30d 363 -14.4% -22.6% 28% 19% -7.5%
≤90d 363 -14.4% -22.6% 28% 19% -7.5%
all 363 -14.4% -22.6% 28% 19% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover150.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.6% 19% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.0% 15% -16.4%
15% -36.7% 13% -24.4%
20% -42.9% 11% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.11 (match) · 3500 history records