Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:44:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8C 0x8cc2…d305 sports 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$869 (+7%) realized +$826 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%60W / 62L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$158est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$978now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$503
14 days−$1,428
30 days+$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$721
other 10% +$79
politics 3% −$11
economics 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +55.1% +40.4% 71% 71% +49.3%
≤30d 77 -9.4% -18.0% 43% 43% -7.1%
≤90d 120 +2.3% -7.5% 49% 49% -3.7%
all 122 +3.2% -6.7% 49% 49% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 49% -3.3%
10% -15.6% 49% -12.6%
15% -23.8% 48% -21.0%
20% -31.2% 45% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$67 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$978
Realized+$826
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses60 / 62
Est. fees paid−$158
Open positions3
Markets (closed)122 / 125
History coverage157d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 76¢ 86¢ $393 $450 +$56 (+14%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $387 $377 −$11 (-3%)
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $154 $152 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $154 −$10 -7%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $61 +$86 +140%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $101 +$24 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $241 +$310 +128%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $61 +$89 +146%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 11 $104 +$56 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $153 −$6 -4%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $153 −$16 -10%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $142 −$140 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $233 −$229 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $468 −$249 -53%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $12 −$4 -37%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $416 −$200 -48%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $211 −$208 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $81 −$81 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $241 −$161 -67%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $202 −$202 -100%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $58 −$57 -99%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $30 −$30 -98%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $105 −$5 -5%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $100 +$70 +70%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $91 +$109 +119%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $153 +$127 +83%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $151 +$159 +105%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $282 +$120 +43%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 06 $35 −$35 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $78 −$78 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $95 −$95 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $61 −$61 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 06 $114 −$114 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoff Jun 06 $106 −$106 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $107 −$107 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Euro Jun 06 $153 −$153 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs Jun 06 $104 −$104 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $204 −$204 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - BC Game Masters E Jun 06 $153 −$153 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $105 +$65 +61%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $103 +$177 +172%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $203 +$197 +97%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $75 +$105 +140%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $103 +$75 +73%
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Gaimin Gladiators (+1.5) Jun 03 $105 +$65 +62%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $207 +$193 +93%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 03 $103 +$47 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $42 1h
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 1h
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 1h
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $85 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $112 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $31 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $154 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 41¢ $61 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 80¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $551 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $241 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $34 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $18 4d
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 40¢ $61 6d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 64¢ $104 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 62¢ $147 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $153 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL TheMongolz 48¢ $137 7d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY Fluxo W7M 45¢ $50 7d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY Fluxo W7M 45¢ $91 7d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 44¢ $45 7d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 44¢ $188 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 53¢ $253 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 47¢ $204 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $215 7d
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 15¢ $7 8d
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $12 8d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 52¢ $153 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $978.30 · official $978.30 (match) · 338 history records