Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:40:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8C 0x8cc6…85f2 sports 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 721d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$310 (+2%) realized +$315 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%36W / 50L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$814
7 days+$814
14 days+$814
30 days+$814
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$237
other 25% +$42
politics 3% −$6
crypto 2% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +26.8% +14.8% 65% 58% +25.5%
≤30d 26 +26.8% +14.8% 65% 58% +25.5%
≤90d 50 +3.2% -6.7% 50% 44% -6.0%
all 86 -3.9% -13.1% 42% 37% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 37% -7.7%
10% -21.4% 36% -16.6%
15% -29.0% 30% -24.6%
20% -36.0% 23% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$63 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

721d coverage
Net worth$362
Realized+$315
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses36 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions3
Markets (closed)86 / 89
History coverage721d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $265 $263 −$2 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $31 $30 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $25 +$21 +84%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $29 +$2 +6%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $68 −$33 -48%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $108 +$26 +24%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $296 +$74 +25%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $165 −$20 -12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $63 −$15 -24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $64 −$14 -22%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $54 +$156 +291%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $58 +$52 +90%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $93 +$69 +75%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $187 +$57 +30%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $39 −$6 -15%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $235 +$187 +79%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $137 +$271 +197%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $67 +$60 +90%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $126 +$81 +65%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $63 +$47 +74%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $48 −$48 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $88 −$86 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $66 −$64 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $15 +$7 +50%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $442 +$278 +63%
Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 24 $78 −$6 -8%
Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $168 +$84 +50%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $219 +$145 +66%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $284 −$28 -10%
AC Monza vs. Modena FC 2018: O/U 1.5 Apr 24 $150 −$150 -100%
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 3.5 Apr 24 $228 −$74 -33%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 24 $171 −$71 -42%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Apr 24 $113 −$81 -72%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 24 $199 −$46 -23%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $181 −$180 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Apr 24 $114 +$56 +49%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $53 −$2 -3%
FK Kolos Kovalivka vs. SK Poltava: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $106 −$105 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $90 −$89 -98%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 1.5 Apr 24 $68 −$37 -54%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Apr 24 $62 +$33 +53%
Macarthur FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 24 $44 +$53 +121%
Macarthur FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $37 +$2 +4%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 24 $56 +$23 +42%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $300 −$296 -98%
CD Palestino vs. CD Concepción: O/U 1.5 Apr 24 $55 −$54 -99%
CD Palestino vs. CD Concepción: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $55 −$24 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $56 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 19¢ $37 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $72 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $213 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $73 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 93¢ $47 3h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 50¢ $25 3h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 90¢ $31 8h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 85¢ $29 8h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 53¢ $16 10h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 48¢ $12 10h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 46¢ $5 10h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Refuser 64¢ $29 10h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Refuser 64¢ $6 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 74¢ $81 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $12 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $31 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 24¢ $23 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $7 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 98¢ $120 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $77 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 62¢ $133 11h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 62¢ $35 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 22¢ $23 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $17 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 29¢ $30 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $92 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $65 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $165 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $361.82 · official $361.82 (match) · 287 history records