Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8C 0x8cc6…2aa4 sports 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$5 (+5%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%16W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$6
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$40
other 31% −$25
world 10% −$10
crypto 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +59.1% +44.0% 44% 44% +43.9%
≤30d 41 +58.5% +43.4% 37% 37% +30.4%
≤90d 43 +51.1% +36.7% 35% 35% +26.5%
all 51 +30.1% +17.7% 31% 31% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.7% 31% -6.6%
10% +6.4% 27% -15.6%
15% -3.9% 24% -23.7%
20% -13.3% 24% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +47% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses16 / 35
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)51 / 55
History coverage116d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 68¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Juan Sebastian Gomez 19¢ 36¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+89%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $1 +$2 +146%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $1 +$4 +411%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $1 +$1 +89%
Birmingham: Mackenzie McDonald vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Wichita: Mikael Arseneault vs Sebastian Gorzny Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Wichita: Enzo Aguiard vs Adria Soriano Barrera Jun 11 $1 +$4 +386%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $2 $0 +20%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $3 +$1 +19%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $1 $0 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $1 +$5 +456%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $1 +$3 +289%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Little Rock: Michael Mmoh vs Bernard Tomic May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $1 +$6 +582%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $1 $0 -25%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $1 +$1 +114%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Marco Trungelliti May 28 $1 $0 -9%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexandre Muller vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Tommy Paul May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 28 $1 +$13 +1274%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $2 +$4 +187%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev May 26 $3 +$16 +515%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1 $0 -18%
Set 1 Winner: Walton vs Medvedev May 26 $3 +$7 +229%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Panathinaikós AO end in a draw? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $1 $0 +30%
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-02-23? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-23? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21? Feb 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 19¢ $1 1h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde BUY Samuel Linde 3¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda SELL Zachary Svajda 7¢ $3 7h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Zachary Svajda 3¢ $1 7h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Max Schoenhaus 7¢ $1 12h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 31¢ $1 3d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 19¢ $1 4d
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato SELL Alvaro Guillen Meza 32¢ $2 4d
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 16¢ $1 4d
ITF Wichita: Mikael Arseneault vs Sebastian Gorzny BUY Mikael Arseneault 3¢ $1 5d
ITF Wichita: Enzo Aguiard vs Adria Soriano Barrera BUY Enzo Aguiard 20¢ $1 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca SELL Joao Fonseca 49¢ $1 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 40¢ $1 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca SELL Jakub Mensik 62¢ $1 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 49¢ $1 13d
Birmingham: Mackenzie McDonald vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer BUY Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 24¢ $1 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Matteo Arnaldi 18¢ $1 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 13¢ $1 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Frances Tiafoe 37¢ $1 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 30¢ $1 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Frances Tiafoe 37¢ $1 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 32¢ $1 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 27¢ $1 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev SELL Jakub Mensik 50¢ $1 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Jakub Mensik 36¢ $1 15d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 2¢ $1 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 98¢ $6 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 17¢ $1 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Moise Kouame 25¢ $1 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 24¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.67 · official $5.67 (match) · 129 history records