Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cc8…57bd other 42 markets active 14h ago coverage 422d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%16W / 26L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$1
politics 17% +$1
other 14% +$2
crypto 7% $0
finance 7% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 22% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 +1.3% -8.3% 36% 18% -9.3%
≤90d 11 +1.3% -8.3% 36% 18% -9.3%
all 42 +0.2% -9.3% 38% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 5% -9.2%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

422d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses16 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage422d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $8 $0 -5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $55 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $44 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $24 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $7 +$1 +11%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Iranian regime fall before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -5%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 26 $8 $0 +5%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 07 $3 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 260–274 times May 30–June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 06 $10 $0 -4%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 French Open? May 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 13 $2 $0 -27%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 12 $20 +$2 +10%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 6-12? May 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 09 $19 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 08 $17 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 08 $3 $0 +9%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 06 $17 $0 -1%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? May 05 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Browns draft Abdul Carter? Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $24 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $14 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $38 13h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 42h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 44h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 44h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 44h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $8 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $0 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $8 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $45 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $46 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $46 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $46 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $17 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $29 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $44 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $6 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $35 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $11 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $30 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 10¢ $8 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes $4 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records