Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8C 0x8cc9…47f2 sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$488 (+60%) realized +$488 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$142
other 26% +$277
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +24.1% +12.3% 50% 50% +42.3%
≤30d 14 +24.1% +12.3% 50% 50% +42.3%
≤90d 14 +24.1% +12.3% 50% 50% +42.3%
all 14 +24.1% +12.3% 50% 50% +42.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.3% 50% +42.3%
10% +1.6% 50% +28.7%
15% -8.3% 43% +16.2%
20% -17.3% 36% +4.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$28 · ×3.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.17 per $1 lost it wins $3.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$488
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $152 +$48 +32%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$101 +197%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 −$30 -49%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$2 -8%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$27 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $127 −$80 -63%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $92 +$268 +291%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $71 +$69 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 −$12 -57%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $69 +$33 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$68 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $200 26m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $51 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $30 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 42¢ $19 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $30 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $52 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $154 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $360 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 20¢ $20 9h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $25 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $25 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $51 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $20 17h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $10 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $31 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 17¢ $9 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $41 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 38¢ $20 26h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 28h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 1¢ $51 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $69 39h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $51 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records