Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:07:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8C 0x8cce…e599 crypto 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$340 (+7%) realized +$296 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%40W / 35L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$457now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$45
14 days+$41
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% −$35
other 27% +$158
world 19% +$39
sports 16% +$81
finance 1% +$5
politics 1% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -9.2% -17.8% 55% 43% -8.2%
≤30d 57 -9.3% -17.9% 51% 40% -9.0%
≤90d 61 -8.4% -17.1% 52% 43% -4.3%
all 75 -3.8% -12.9% 53% 44% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 44% -5.4%
10% -21.3% 37% -14.5%
15% -28.9% 28% -22.7%
20% -35.8% 19% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$25 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$457
Realized+$296
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses40 / 35
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage113d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $396 $437 +$41 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12AM ET Down 83¢ 100¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11PM ET Jun 28 $512 +$167 +33%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 28 $52 +$57 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $52 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $52 +$41 +78%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $51 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $203 −$203 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $41 +$28 +69%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 28 $204 +$21 +10%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs LOS Jun 27 $10 +$22 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$9 +17%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$10 +39%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8AM ET Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$28 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET Jun 27 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET Jun 27 $111 +$10 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$19 +37%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $10 +$19 +187%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $102 +$30 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $211 +$69 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7AM ET Jun 26 $140 +$17 +12%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 26 $61 +$30 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $194 +$62 +32%
Will COD Meknès vs. HUS Agadir end in a draw? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Olympic Dcheira vs. IR Tanger end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$4 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $17 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $512 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $52 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 76¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $203 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $51 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 83¢ $51 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $52 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $101 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $111 20h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 21h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 23h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 24h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 24h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $204 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $457.08 · official $457.08 (match) · 154 history records