Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cce…9310 crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 549d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,402 (-24%) realized −$1,402 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$24
14 days−$50
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,362
other 1% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -52.4% -57.0% 0% 0% -14.6%
≤30d 13 -26.8% -33.8% 15% 15% -16.5%
≤90d 20 -24.0% -31.2% 25% 25% -14.1%
all 32 -16.5% -24.5% 34% 34% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 34% -33.7%
10% -31.7% 34% -40.1%
15% -38.3% 31% -45.9%
20% -44.3% 28% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$133 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

549d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,402
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage549d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET Jun 27 $421 −$20 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET Jun 20 $172 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $559 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $226 −$25 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$52 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 03 $52 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 03 $78 −$50 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 03 $32 −$9 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 03 $104 −$29 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 03 $52 −$17 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $38 +$42 +108%
HYPE Up or Down on June 1? May 31 $39 −$39 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 7AM ET May 27 $102 +$36 +35%
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 20 $42 +$65 +155%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on May 15? May 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 6? May 15 $40 +$32 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 30? Jan 13 $60 +$62 +104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 23? Nov 30 $30 +$24 +81%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Nov 10 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 15? Oct 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-29? Oct 04 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3? Oct 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Oct 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin above $105,000 on January 31? Jan 31 $1,324 −$1,324 -100%
Will US gov sell Bitcoin before Trump inauguration? Jan 23 $230 +$94 +41%
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 17? Jan 18 $580 +$341 +59%
Dogecoin above $0.34 on January 17? Jan 18 $290 +$609 +210%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on December 27? Dec 26 $1,084 −$1,084 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $117 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $80 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records