Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8C 0x8ccf…0720 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6 (+2%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +2.1% -7.6% 65% 47% -6.9%
≤30d 17 +2.1% -7.6% 65% 47% -6.9%
≤90d 17 +2.1% -7.6% 65% 47% -6.9%
all 17 +2.1% -7.6% 65% 47% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 47% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 41% -15.8%
15% -24.6% 35% -23.9%
20% -31.9% 0% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $132 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$8 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$1 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $12 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $6 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records