Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8C 0x8ccf…a7a3 weather 301 markets active 0h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$133 (-0%) realized −$144 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate87%253W / 37L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,480now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days−$33
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 53% −$1,439
crypto 20% −$229
other 11% +$89
politics 10% +$95
finance 3% +$12
world 3% +$137
sports 0% +$11
economics 0% +$3
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 83 +3.2% -6.6% 98% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 177 -4.7% -13.8% 87% 2% -12.6%
all 290 -2.3% -11.6% 87% 5% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 5% -11.3%
10% -20.1% 2% -19.8%
15% -27.8% 2% -27.6%
20% -34.9% 1% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$64 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$1,480
Realized−$144
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses253 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)290 / 301
History coverage620d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $250 $260 +$10 (+4%)
Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $240 $240 +$0 (+0%)
Trump out as President by July 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $197 $198 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $177 $177 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 29? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $140 $141 +$1 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 29? No 100¢ 99¢ $131 $131 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C or below on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1,437 +$5 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 23? Jun 23 $130 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 23? Jun 23 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $238 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 22? Jun 22 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $401 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 22? Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $121 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $279 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $158 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $1,078 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $345 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 19 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $64 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $451 +$5 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $449 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $133 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $78 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $138 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $336 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $129 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $197 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $37 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $469 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $127 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $149 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $265 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $207 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +162%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $148 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5 7m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 29? BUY Yes 99¢ $140 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 30? SELL No 99¢ $9 2h
Trump out as President by July 31? BUY No 99¢ $197 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $15 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY No 98¢ $49 5h
Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY No 100¢ $240 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $199 6h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C or below on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $67 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $97 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $116 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $839 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $199 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $398 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $401 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $53 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $39 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $16 7d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $238 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $50 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $15 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $15 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $48 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $29 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $50 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,479.54 · official $1,479.44 (match) · 1141 history records