Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8C 0x8ccf…96bf crypto 319 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$927 (+2%) realized +$927 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate93%296W / 23L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$101
14 days+$829
30 days+$873
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$873
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +1.6% -8.1% 85% 57% -8.4%
≤30d 319 +1.9% -7.8% 93% 27% -7.8%
≤90d 319 +1.9% -7.8% 93% 27% -7.8%
all 319 +1.9% -7.8% 93% 27% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 27% -7.8%
10% -16.6% 6% -16.6%
15% -24.7% 2% -24.7%
20% -32.1% 1% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$141 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$927
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses296 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)319 / 319
History coverage24d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 319 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $202 +$39 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $202 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $201 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $202 +$36 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $202 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $203 +$53 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $203 +$42 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $202 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $202 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $203 +$49 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $202 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $202 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $204 +$67 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $207 +$178 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $202 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $202 +$36 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $203 +$41 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $201 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $203 +$47 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $202 +$36 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $202 +$36 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $202 +$38 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 05 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 05 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 05 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 05 $200 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $202 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $201 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $202 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $201 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $202 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $203 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $203 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $203 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $202 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $202 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $203 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $202 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $202 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $204 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $201 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $204 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $207 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $202 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $201 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $201 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $201 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $202 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $202 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 619 history records