Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8C 0x8ccf…07b0 sports 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-4%) realized −$14 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%48W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$42
14 days−$28
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$4
other 48% −$43
crypto 1% −$5
culture 1% −$5
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -29.7% -36.4% 50% 39% -20.2%
≤30d 54 -14.8% -22.9% 59% 48% -13.8%
≤90d 56 -15.8% -23.8% 59% 48% -13.9%
all 82 +6.3% -3.8% 59% 49% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 49% -13.2%
10% -13.0% 30% -21.5%
15% -21.4% 22% -29.1%
20% -29.1% 18% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses48 / 34
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)82 / 87
History coverage125d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 53¢ 74¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+41%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 12¢ $28 $7 −$21 (-74%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-40%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $10 +$7 +73%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $6 +$4 +72%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$17 +34%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $52 +$8 +16%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $25 +$5 +20%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$2 +16%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $8 +$2 +21%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $28 +$2 +5%
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ assists Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 +$6 +17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $3 +$5 +206%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$2 +16%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 +$2 +11%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 +$4 +19%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 +$3 +99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $13 +$4 +29%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +140%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -68%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$2 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 43m
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $28 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $6 25h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 28h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $52 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $25 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 59¢ $7 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 53¢ $2 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 52¢ $3 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $10 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $50 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $3 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 81¢ $24 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 82¢ $25 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $8 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $28 6d
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $2 7d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $10 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $6 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 89¢ $7 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 87¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.45 · official $34.07 (match) · 174 history records