Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:10:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
8C 0x8cd0…36f8 other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$31 (+15%) realized +$26 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%22W / 22L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$21
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$36
sports 7% +$1
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +9.9% -0.6% 50% 47% +4.1%
≤30d 44 +20.0% +8.6% 50% 48% +8.5%
≤90d 44 +20.0% +8.6% 50% 48% +8.5%
all 44 +20.0% +8.6% 50% 48% +8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 48% +8.5%
10% -1.8% 48% -1.9%
15% -11.3% 43% -11.4%
20% -20.0% 34% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses22 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage8d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+12%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $17 +$11 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$9 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$2 +29%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 +$2 +57%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$6 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$3 +67%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 +$8 +786%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +250%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +158%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +42%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 +$5 +474%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 4h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 7h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 28h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 28h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 28h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 34h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.66 · official $49.66 (match) · 76 history records