Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cd2…648c sports 763 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,620 (+5%) realized +$3,692 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%360W / 399L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$1,059est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$781now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$233
7 days+$1,355
14 days+$3,990
30 days+$3,834
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$2,778
other 2% +$397
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +8.1% -2.2% 58% 58% +2.8%
≤30d 334 +4.2% -5.7% 51% 51% -0.7%
≤90d 757 -2.8% -12.0% 47% 47% -5.2%
all 759 -2.6% -11.9% 47% 47% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 47% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 47% -14.2%
15% -28.0% 46% -22.5%
20% -35.1% 45% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$74 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$781
Realized+$3,692
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses360 / 399
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$1,059
Open positions4
Markets (closed)759 / 763
History coverage97d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 759 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $365 $550 +$184 (+50%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 40¢ 42¢ $167 $171 +$4 (+3%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 60¢ 60¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 54¢ 0¢ $261 $0 −$261 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 370 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $169 −$168 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $55 −$53 -98%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $68 +$52 +76%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $1,092 +$340 +31%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $128 +$159 +125%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $612 +$508 +83%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $340 +$205 +60%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $431 −$430 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $81 −$80 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $130 +$120 +92%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $340 +$160 +47%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $209 +$91 +44%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+1.5) Jun 17 $275 +$225 +82%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $197 +$124 +63%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $209 −$123 -59%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $46 −$46 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $24 +$16 +65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $250 +$250 +100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $259 +$241 +93%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $214 −$212 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $27 +$33 +119%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$7 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $128 −$128 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $194 −$174 -90%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $262 +$193 +74%
Game Handicap: TESC (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $0 +$1 +257%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $58 −$57 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $417 −$414 -99%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $282 +$160 +57%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $237 +$263 +111%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $140 +$110 +79%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $210 +$140 +67%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $199 −$53 -27%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $112 −$112 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $202 −$202 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $146 −$146 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $249 +$200 +80%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $278 +$222 +80%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $40 −$39 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $140 +$110 +79%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $454 −$451 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $136 −$130 -96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $61 +$39 +64%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $112 +$88 +79%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $125 +$125 +100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $81 +$119 +148%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 13 $474 +$278 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 40¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 40¢ $83 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $83 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 49¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 55¢ $56 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $198 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $169 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 28¢ $29 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 56¢ $140 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 21¢ $55 7h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 60¢ $61 17h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Carstensz 50¢ $10 17h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Carstensz 58¢ $24 18h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Carstensz 58¢ $5 18h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Carstensz 58¢ $13 18h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Carstensz 58¢ $17 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 56¢ $159 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $118 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $139 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $21 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $52 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $2 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $18 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $47 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 42¢ $336 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 44¢ $346 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $367 24h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 27¢ $27 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $195 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $43 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $781.49 · official $781.49 (match) · 2343 history records