Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:12:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cd8…02d2 world 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate32%25W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$2
other 21% $0
politics 14% $0
sports 9% −$12
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.4% -11.7% 29% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 29 -3.8% -13.0% 48% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 78 -1.6% -11.0% 32% 1% -9.6%
all 79 -2.9% -12.1% 32% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 1% -9.9%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses25 / 54
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage486d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $79 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $175 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $47 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $70 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $11 −$2 -18%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $2 $0 -14%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $27 +$2 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $34 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $141 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $72 −$2 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $47 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $116 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $33 −$2 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $47 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $9 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $68 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $77 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $39 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $38 +$2 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $40 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $41 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $6 $0 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $58 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $103 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $75 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $45 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $39 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $9 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $6 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $4 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $19 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $41 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $40 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 43h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $21 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $14 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $35 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $16 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $17 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $19 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $9 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.61 · official $0.00 (match) · 391 history records