Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8C 0x8cdb…6e41 crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,417 (+13%) realized +$1,415 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%33W / 25L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$610
finance 39% −$427
other 13% +$1,240
world 1% −$44
sports 0% +$11
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -34.1% -40.4% 0% 0% -40.4%
≤30d 8 -3.5% -12.7% 50% 50% -10.6%
≤90d 20 -16.7% -24.6% 45% 45% -28.4%
all 58 -4.2% -13.3% 57% 50% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 50% +1.6%
10% -21.6% 34% -8.2%
15% -29.2% 21% -17.0%
20% -36.1% 12% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$84 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$1,415
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses33 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage167d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $38 −$13 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? May 31 $18 −$16 -91%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $104 +$13 +12%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $39 +$11 +28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 24 $118 −$44 -37%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 22? May 23 $24 +$8 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? May 21 $56 +$39 +70%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $36 −$3 -9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $37 +$13 +34%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 14? May 16 $39 +$9 +24%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $75 −$40 -54%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $19 −$18 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 1? May 02 $34 +$16 +47%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $75 −$53 -71%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 24? Apr 24 $33 +$4 +13%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 15? Apr 17 $124 +$112 +90%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 10? Apr 10 $45 −$16 -36%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 9? Apr 09 $84 −$73 -87%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 30? Mar 30 $150 −$101 -67%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 24? Mar 29 $110 −$110 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 16? Mar 16 $231 −$171 -74%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 4? Mar 04 $474 −$229 -48%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? Mar 03 $750 +$250 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 28? Feb 28 $98 −$73 -74%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 25? Feb 25 $97 −$8 -8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23? Feb 23 $335 −$54 -16%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 20? Feb 21 $177 +$190 +107%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? Feb 18 $174 +$66 +38%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? Feb 09 $272 −$150 -55%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 6? Feb 07 $248 +$62 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 31? Jan 31 $151 −$111 -73%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 29? Jan 30 $293 −$293 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 60°F or higher on January 22 Jan 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down on January 21? Jan 30 $119 −$119 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 28? Jan 29 $452 +$110 +24%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Jan 28 $232 −$110 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jan 28 $79 +$28 +36%
Solana Up or Down on January 27? Jan 28 $172 +$253 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 27 $4 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - January 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 27 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 25? Jan 26 $312 +$38 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on January 20? Jan 21 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on January 20? Jan 21 $182 +$18 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 20? Jan 21 $391 +$36 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $236 +$49 +21%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 16? Jan 19 $107 −$107 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 12? Jan 19 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 18? Jan 19 $71 +$74 +104%
Solana Up or Down on January 18? Jan 19 $173 +$33 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 16? Jan 17 $474 +$53 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? SELL No 40¢ $25 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY No 56¢ $38 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $18 19d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26? SELL Up 94¢ $117 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $75 25d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $118 26d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26? BUY Up 83¢ $104 26d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 22? BUY Up 75¢ $24 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? SELL No 95¢ $95 29d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 21? SELL Down 86¢ $21 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? BUY No 54¢ $56 29d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 21? SELL Down 46¢ $11 29d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 21? BUY Down 71¢ $36 29d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 19? SELL Down 90¢ $50 31d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 19? BUY Down 66¢ $37 31d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 33d
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? SELL No 36¢ $35 35d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 14? BUY Up 80¢ $39 36d
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 74¢ $75 38d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the BUY No 77¢ $39 38d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11? BUY Up 37¢ $19 39d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 1? BUY Up 67¢ $34 49d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 29? SELL Up 22¢ $21 51d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 29? BUY Up 74¢ $75 51d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 24? SELL Down 38¢ $37 56d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 24? BUY Down 33¢ $33 56d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 15? BUY Up 52¢ $124 65d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 10? SELL Down 36¢ $29 70d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 10? BUY Down 56¢ $45 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.66 · official $51.66 (match) · 200 history records