Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8C 0x8cdd…c3df weather 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$161 (+0%) realized +$141 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%165W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$24
14 days+$45
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 6% -8.5%
≤30d 70 -0.3% -9.8% 99% 1% -9.1%
≤90d 171 -1.1% -10.5% 96% 1% -9.2%
all 171 -1.1% -10.5% 96% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 1% -9.2%
10% -19.1% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$14 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$1,145
Realized+$141
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses165 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)171 / 186
History coverage82d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $319 $321 +$2 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C or below on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $243 $245 +$2 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $157 $159 +$1 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or below on June 20? No 91¢ 99¢ $136 $149 +$13 (+9%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 20? No 98¢ 97¢ $65 $65 −$1 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on June 18? No 96¢ 100¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C or below on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $181 +$8 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $167 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $286 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 17? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 17? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 17? Jun 15 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 16? Jun 14 $223 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on June 16? Jun 14 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $374 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $393 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on June 10? Jun 10 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $102 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $40 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $93 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $267 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $397 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $180 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C or below on June 7? Jun 06 $509 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on June Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 5? Jun 06 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 25°C on June 5? Jun 06 $21 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $252 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $629 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $139 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June Jun 04 $25 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $37 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $123 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on Ju Jun 02 $37 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on Ju Jun 02 $25 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $532 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on May 31? May 31 $1,074 +$36 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 28°C or below on May 28? May 29 $125 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 20? May 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on May 28? May 28 $51 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 55°F or below on May 27? May 28 $813 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or below on June 20? BUY No 91¢ $137 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C or below on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $65 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $70 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $15 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $319 25h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $17 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $152 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C or below on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $104 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C or below on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $139 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $22 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $22 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $110 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or below on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $29 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,145.26 · official $1,145.26 (match) · 578 history records