Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:45:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8C 0x8cde…cbeb weather 907 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$249 (-0%) realized −$249 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%895W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day70.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$725now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$36
14 days+$76
30 days+$259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 57% +$218
crypto 43% +$72
other 0% +$313
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 748 +0.1% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 901 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.0%
all 901 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 0% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×35.2 per $1 lost it wins $35.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$725
Realized−$249
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses895 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)901 / 907
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$113
Trades / day70.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 901 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $275 $275 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $199 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 78¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 20 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18? Jun 18 $173 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $78 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 18 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 18 $197 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 18 $291 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $403 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $531 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $239 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $143 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 16? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 16? Jun 17 $190 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 16? Jun 17 $125 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 16? Jun 17 $439 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 16? Jun 17 $256 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.15 on June 16? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 16? Jun 17 $210 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $114 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $258 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $254 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $258 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $240 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $199 41m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $275 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $30 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $30 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $30 27h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $22 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $65 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $89 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $724.62 · official $724.62 (match) · 3500 history records