Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:36:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8C 0x8cdf…03de crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$8
other 30% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +1.4% -8.3% 47% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 15 +1.4% -8.3% 47% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 15 +1.4% -8.3% 47% 0% -8.5%
all 15 +1.4% -8.3% 47% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 0% -8.5%
10% -17.1% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×10.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.04 per $1 lost it wins $9.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $55 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $54 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $54 $0 -0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $40 +$4 +10%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $49 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 -1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $45 +$1 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 -1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 -0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 -0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records