Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8C 0x8ce1…1901 other 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+3%) realized +$84 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate62%44W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$272
14 days+$105
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$106
crypto 11% −$75
sports 10% +$55
politics 5% +$5
world 4% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +11.7% +1.0% 65% 62% +9.2%
≤30d 60 +5.5% -4.5% 67% 55% -4.2%
≤90d 71 +3.3% -6.5% 62% 49% -5.6%
all 71 +3.3% -6.5% 62% 49% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 49% -5.6%
10% -15.4% 41% -14.6%
15% -23.6% 27% -22.8%
20% -31.1% 18% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$84
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses44 / 27
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)71 / 76
History coverage52d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 3¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $121 +$27 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $122 +$12 +10%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$10 -66%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $96 +$52 +55%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $41 +$40 +98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -55%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 −$46 -76%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$14 +47%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -56%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 +$12 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $121 +$28 +23%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -23%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $52 +$6 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $36 +$11 +30%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +55%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $23 −$3 -12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $37 +$11 +29%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 +$10 +86%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 −$11 -52%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$13 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $24 +$6 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 +$8 +50%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$5 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$3 +34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $29 −$21 -72%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -99%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jun 15 $30 −$8 -27%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $19 +$4 +20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $123 −$103 -84%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $42 +$3 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$11 -53%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $148 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 8h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $120 25h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 28h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 30h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 31h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 31h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $96 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 46h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.88 · official $130.45 · 191 history records