Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:58:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8ce5…241f other 232 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 223L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$12
14 days−$22
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$38
sports 25% −$20
politics 8% −$6
crypto 6% −$6
culture 6% −$5
economics 5% −$2
world 4% −$4
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 231 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage131d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $98 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $162 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $340 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $292 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $326 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $202 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $139 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $158 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $417 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $99 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $179 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $379 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $230 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $548 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $320 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $217 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $262 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $238 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $284 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $380 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $113 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $190 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $292 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $378 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $248 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $286 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $357 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $256 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $253 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $292 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $55 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 1h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $48 6h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $48 7h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $48 8h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $48 10h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 11h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 13h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 15h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $48 16h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $48 20h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $48 21h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 23h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 25h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 30h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 32h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $48 39h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $48 40h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $48 42h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 44h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 45h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 47h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.66 · official $47.66 (match) · 1354 history records