Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:58:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8ce6…9036 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-9%) realized −$89 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$347now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$50
sports 6% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-52.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -47.6% -52.6% 17% 17% -6.4%
≤30d 6 -47.6% -52.6% 17% 17% -6.4%
≤90d 6 -47.6% -52.6% 17% 17% -6.4%
all 6 -47.6% -52.6% 17% 17% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.6% 17% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -57.1% 17% -15.3%
15% -61.3% 0% -23.5%
20% -65.1% 0% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$16 · ×5.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$347
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $144 $161 +$18 (+12%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $92 $87 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $304 +$96 +32%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -17%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 −$24 -92%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $35 −$33 -96%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $30 −$4 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $95 32m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $95 33m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $128 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $113 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $87 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 82¢ $200 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $179 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 5h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 5h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 39¢ $20 5h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 5h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 3¢ $2 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $26 9h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 22¢ $26 9h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $30 9h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $35 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $347.43 · official $347.43 (match) · 21 history records