trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 17 | -1.6% | -11.0% | 47% | 6% | -10.8% |
| ≤30d | 17 | -1.6% | -11.0% | 47% | 6% | -10.8% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -1.6% | -11.0% | 47% | 6% | -10.8% |
| all | 20 | +3.3% | -6.6% | 45% | 10% | -3.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.6% | 10% | -3.0% |
| 10% | -15.5% | 10% | -12.3% |
| 15% | -23.7% | 5% | -20.8% |
| 20% | -31.2% | 5% | -28.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | No | 43¢ | 42¢ | $34 | $33 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? | Jun 20 | $240 | −$9 | -4% |
| Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title | Jun 20 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? | Jun 19 | $70 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? | Jun 19 | $17 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Jun 18 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 18 | $87 | −$12 | -14% |
| Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | Jun 18 | $71 | −$10 | -14% |
| Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? | Jun 17 | $119 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? | Jun 17 | $42 | $0 | +1% |
| Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? | Jun 17 | $35 | +$2 | +7% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $88 | −$2 | -3% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $109 | −$5 | -5% |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 16 | $21 | −$3 | -12% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 16 | $19 | −$3 | -15% |
| Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 15 | $96 | +$23 | +24% |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 15 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? | Jun 15 | $19 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 09 | $23,355 | −$4 | -0% |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 08 | $4,640 | $0 | +0% |
| Knicks vs. Nuggets | Mar 08 | $2,486 | +$2,294 | +92% |