Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8ce9…12e8 other 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 221L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$21
14 days−$31
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$38
sports 17% −$10
culture 8% −$7
economics 8% −$7
politics 7% −$5
world 6% −$4
crypto 5% −$1
tech 1% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.0% -9.5% 5% 1% -9.7%
all 236 -0.0% -9.5% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)236 / 236
History coverage127d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 236 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $170 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $578 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $118 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $267 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $144 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $622 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $877 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $353 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $416 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $610 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $210 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $605 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $368 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $295 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $410 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $966 −$3 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $273 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $229 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $139 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $311 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $128 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $169 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 06 $187 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $699 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $688 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $152 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $284 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $154 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $219 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 53m
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 2h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 4h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 6h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 6h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 8h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 9h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 11h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $54 13h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $54 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 16h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 19h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 21h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 21h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 23h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 28h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 30h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 31h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 33h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 34h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 37h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 38h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 43h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 45h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1369 history records