Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:34:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cea…98e0 crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (349 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$56 (-4%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate44%30W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day349.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$112
sports 10% −$19
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (349 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -27.2% -34.2% 44% 22% -20.8%
≤30d 68 -27.2% -34.2% 44% 22% -20.8%
≤90d 68 -27.2% -34.2% 44% 22% -20.8%
all 68 -27.2% -34.2% 44% 22% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover349.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.2% 22% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -40.5% 12% -28.4%
15% -46.2% 9% -35.3%
20% -51.5% 4% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses30 / 38
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day349.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Kyoji Horiguchi 42¢ 42¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$4 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $83 −$14 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $94 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $46 −$25 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $56 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $36 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $36 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$8 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $33 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs DarkZero Esports (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Outlast (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Jun 19 $10 −$9 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North Jun 19 $10 −$9 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$6 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$4 -68%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $34 +$50 +146%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $31 −$20 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$12 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $24 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.00 · official $20.00 (match) · 368 history records