Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8C 0x8ceb…e292 world 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% $0
other 25% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 17% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 17% 0% -9.4%
all 6 +0.1% -9.4% 17% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage7d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 28 $492 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? Jun 28 $509 $0 +0%
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Jun 23 $443 +$3 +1%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 23 $442 $0 +0%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? SELL No 95¢ $492 50m
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY No 95¢ $492 1h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? SELL No 92¢ $509 2h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? BUY No 92¢ $509 3h
Will US annex any territory in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $446 5d
Will US annex any territory in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $443 5d
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $442 5d
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $442 5d
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $24 7d
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $26 7d
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 7d
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $25 7d
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $50 7d
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $24 7d
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records