Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:20:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8C 0x8cee…bfa1 crypto 204 markets active 2h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%192W / 11L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$13
weather 3% +$5
sports 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 18 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 62 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 203 -1.9% -11.3% 95% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses192 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)203 / 204
History coverage248d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? May 30 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 29 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 28 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17? May 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 16 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? May 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? May 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? May 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? May 10 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? May 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? May 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 5? May 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 4? May 05 $44 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 3? May 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 2? May 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? May 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 29? May 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 26? Apr 28 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? Apr 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or higher on April 23 Apr 24 $44 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 22? Apr 23 $40 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 21? Apr 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? Apr 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 17? Apr 17 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $46 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $46 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $46 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $46 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $46 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $46 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $46 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $46 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $46 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $46 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $46 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $46 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $46 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $45 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $45 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $45 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $45 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $45 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $45 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $45 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $45 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $45 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.02 · official $46.02 (match) · 418 history records