Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:25:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cf5…3736 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$121 (-16%) realized −$98 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$92
sports 12% +$5
world 5% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -15.0% -23.1% 39% 39% -33.7%
≤30d 18 -15.0% -23.1% 39% 39% -33.7%
≤90d 18 -15.0% -23.1% 39% 39% -33.7%
all 18 -15.0% -23.1% 39% 39% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 39% -33.7%
10% -30.5% 39% -40.0%
15% -37.2% 28% -45.8%
20% -43.3% 17% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$370
Realized−$98
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)18 / 25
History coverage3d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $162 $136 −$26 (-16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $51 $54 +$3 (+7%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 78¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+35%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$4 -58%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 $0 -2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$12 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$10 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$12 +196%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $37 −$33 -90%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$14 +69%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 +$7 +23%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $16 +$14 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 64¢ $32 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $35 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $20 16h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 21h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 21h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 24h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 24h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 24h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 26h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 26h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 26h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 41h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 41h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 41h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $34 41h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 57¢ $38 41h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 43h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $18 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.55 · official $369.03 (match) · 52 history records