Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:33:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cf7…1958 sports 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$356 (-7%) realized −$378 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%72W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$288
7 days−$211
14 days−$559
30 days−$419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$589
other 17% +$169
crypto 6% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +5.1% -4.9% 41% 38% -13.9%
≤30d 153 +6.1% -4.0% 47% 44% -16.5%
≤90d 153 +6.1% -4.0% 47% 44% -16.5%
all 153 +6.1% -4.0% 47% 44% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 44% -16.5%
10% -13.2% 39% -24.5%
15% -21.6% 38% -31.8%
20% -29.3% 29% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$22 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$378
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses72 / 81
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 155
History coverage21d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 81¢ $80 $102 +$22 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $12 +$16 +129%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $15 −$2 -15%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $46 −$36 -79%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $25 +$15 +60%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $51 +$27 +53%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $25 +$11 +42%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $45 +$24 +52%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 −$33 -65%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $35 +$16 +46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $81 +$62 +77%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $40 −$16 -40%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -58%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $25 −$18 -69%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$16 +80%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $56 +$44 +79%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $101 +$20 +20%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $202 +$79 +39%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$84 +82%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 −$23 -87%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $61 −$56 -92%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $36 −$25 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $104 +$102 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $102 −$52 -51%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $102 −$76 -75%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $10 +$56 +550%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $177 −$174 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $12 +$33 +264%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $91 −$90 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $6 +$7 +119%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $9 +$8 +86%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $18 −$2 -9%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $81 −$80 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $4 −$2 -49%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $305 +$31 +10%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $6 −$4 -59%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $65 −$64 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $32 +$5 +14%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $16 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 55m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 19h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 43¢ $12 19h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 19h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 20h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 48¢ $7 20h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 SELL Under 61¢ $9 20h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 20h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 202 BUY 51¢ $10 20h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $46 20h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 SELL Under 88¢ $8 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL No 90¢ $8 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 SELL Under 70¢ $14 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 SELL Under 71¢ $13 22h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL No 64¢ $7 22h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 SELL Under 56¢ $14 22h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $25 23h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 90¢ $16 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 84¢ $5 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 81¢ $6 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 81¢ $8 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 33¢ $16 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $25 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $45 26h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 96¢ $7 36h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 95¢ $0 36h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 95¢ $13 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.56 · official $101.57 (match) · 439 history records