Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:07:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8C 0x8cf7…7592 world 74 markets active 2d ago coverage 342d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%31W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days+$25
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$31
politics 19% +$5
other 17% −$26
economics 9% −$4
sports 9% +$3
culture 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 28 +0.6% -9.0% 54% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 46 +0.3% -9.3% 46% 4% -9.1%
all 72 -0.9% -10.4% 43% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 3% -9.4%
10% -19.0% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.8% 1% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

342d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses31 / 41
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage342d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 26 $112 −$1 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 26 $124 +$1 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $112 −$2 -2%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $101 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $128 −$1 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $117 −$1 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +50%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $122 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $226 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $115 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $200 +$6 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 16 $267 +$10 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 16 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $307 +$3 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $83 +$6 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $123 +$3 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $337 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $50 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $92 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $10 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -53%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $100 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $7 −$1 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $92 +$2 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $39 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $83 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $92 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $39 +$4 +10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $5 $0 -4%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $83 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $99 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $75 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $709 +$6 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $362 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $458 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $711 −$2 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $16 −$1 -8%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $35 −$3 -8%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $190 −$1 -0%
Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 12 $206 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $128 −$15 -11%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 08 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $2 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $110 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $94 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $16 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 88¢ $106 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 88¢ $4 2d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $38 3d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $75 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $109 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $112 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $101 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $28 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $74 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $13 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $11 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $91 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $117 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 6d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 6d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 7d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $115 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $7 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.00 (match) · 296 history records