Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cff…8a71 crypto 148 markets active 3d ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-8%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%86W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$61
14 days−$61
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$71
other 7% −$24
sports 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 -5.5% -14.5% 59% 57% -16.0%
≤30d 148 -6.0% -15.0% 58% 57% -18.4%
≤90d 148 -6.0% -15.0% 58% 57% -18.4%
all 148 -6.0% -15.0% 58% 57% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 57% -18.4%
10% -23.1% 47% -26.2%
15% -30.6% 36% -33.3%
20% -37.4% 25% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses86 / 62
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)148 / 148
History coverage18d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 148 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +90%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $22 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$7 +49%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -9%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -22%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -9%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 $0 -6%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +198%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$7 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$4 +134%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $34 +$15 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$6 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $22 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 4d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $22 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $15 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 301 history records