Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:46:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8D 0x8d01…0f69 sports 125 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$180 (+8%) realized +$186 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%76W / 43L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$163
14 days+$218
30 days+$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$116
world 16% +$85
other 10% −$4
tech 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -4.2% -13.3% 67% 56% -1.4%
≤30d 118 -0.9% -10.3% 64% 55% -0.9%
≤90d 118 -0.9% -10.3% 64% 55% -0.9%
all 119 -1.7% -11.1% 64% 55% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 55% -1.0%
10% -19.6% 35% -10.5%
15% -27.4% 21% -19.1%
20% -34.5% 13% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$186
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses76 / 43
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)119 / 125
History coverage112d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? No 87¢ 88¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 64¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 65¢ 46¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-30%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 49¢ 26¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $30 +$4 +14%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $30 +$3 +10%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $20 +$15 +73%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $30 +$4 +12%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $30 +$3 +10%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $50 +$5 +11%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$3 +8%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Spr Jun 23 $10 +$13 +126%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $30 +$4 +12%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $50 +$19 +37%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 +$7 +34%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $80 −$21 -26%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $60 +$12 +20%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $30 +$4 +14%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $10 +$3 +34%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $30 +$3 +11%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $105 +$47 +45%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $80 +$66 +82%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $25 +$5 +18%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $40 +$2 +6%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $30 +$6 +20%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$3 +29%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$7 +68%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $50 +$9 +19%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $81 +$6 +8%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 −$26 -86%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $50 +$5 +10%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $81 +$3 +4%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $20 −$13 -65%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $35 +$4 +11%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $55 −$5 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $40 −$34 -86%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $30 +$7 +25%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$4 -70%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$13 -63%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $9 −$8 -87%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -58%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $50 +$18 +35%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $30 +$6 +19%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $30 28m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $30 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $20 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 87¢ $30 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 AND Wi BUY 49¢ $20 12h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $30 12h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 AND Co BUY 48¢ $10 19h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $30 20h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 90¢ $50 21h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 22h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $30 22h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 22h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $30 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under $0 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 61¢ $20 24h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 89¢ $30 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 74¢ $20 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Spr BUY 44¢ $10 40h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $30 46h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 90¢ $50 47h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL New Zealand 12¢ $4 47h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $0 47h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 90¢ $20 47h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 47h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $20 47h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 90¢ $10 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $30 2d
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 57¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.88 · official $53.88 (match) · 284 history records