Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:57:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

8D 0x8d04…a00d sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$11 (+4%) realized +$12 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip

Net edge-44%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate43%3W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$31per market

Trades / day9.9pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit78%portable

Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-39.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-33.0%	-39.4%	43%	29%	-2.6%
≤30d	7	-33.0%	-39.4%	43%	29%	-2.6%
≤90d	7	-33.0%	-39.4%	43%	29%	-2.6%
all	7	-33.0%	-39.4%	43%	29%	-2.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-39.4%	29%	-2.6%
10%	-45.2%	29%	-11.9%
15%	-50.5%	29%	-20.4%
20%	-55.3%	29%	-28.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -33% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$19 vs −$12 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.2 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$119

Realized+$12

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses3 / 4

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$31

Trades / day9.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos	NC Dinos	53¢	52¢	$120	$119	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes	Jun 19	$3	+$2	+55%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos	Jun 19	$67	+$57	+85%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Jun 19	$5	−$4	-73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Jun 19	$5	$0	+3%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic?	Jun 18	$21	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic?	Jun 18	$21	−$20	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos	BUY NC Dinos	53¢	$122	1h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes	BUY Lotte Giants	64¢	$3	16h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos	SELL NC Dinos	92¢	$123	16h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos	BUY NC Dinos	49¢	$67	24h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$5	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	SELL Up	4¢	$1	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$5	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$5	27h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	16¢	$21	28h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	10¢	$21	28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026	BUY	17¢	$31	28h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.96 · official $118.96 (match) · 13 history records