Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:24:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8D 0x8d06…f79d sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,119 (+15%) realized +$6,318 · open −$199
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$931per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$483est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2,424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$6,262
other 15% −$781
crypto 8% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +1.0% -8.7% 50% 48% +5.2%
≤30d 42 +1.0% -8.7% 50% 48% +5.2%
≤90d 42 +1.0% -8.7% 50% 48% +5.2%
all 42 +1.0% -8.7% 50% 48% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 48% +5.2%
10% -17.4% 43% -4.9%
15% ← realistic here -25.4% 40% -14.1%
20% -32.7% 38% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$1,035) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$904 vs −$634 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$2,424
Realized+$6,318
Unrealized−$199
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$483
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage3d
Avg bet$931
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 39¢ 40¢ $1,000 $1,013 +$13 (+1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Ecuador 40¢ 36¢ $1,000 $888 −$112 (-11%)
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Ecuador 22¢ 18¢ $623 $524 −$99 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -97%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 20 $1,093 +$707 +65%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $95 −$95 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,012 −$651 -64%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $551 −$539 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $409 +$971 +238%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $510 +$1,052 +206%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $511 +$1,489 +291%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $510 −$500 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $515 +$361 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $1,035 +$988 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $522 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $523 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $105 −$100 -95%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $310 −$300 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,031 −$2,000 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $3,040 +$2,403 +79%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $1,176 −$1,168 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,013 +$712 +70%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $507 +$483 +95%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $665 +$1,199 +180%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,024 −$1,003 -98%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $1,013 +$97 +10%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $1,016 +$1,068 +105%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $511 −$500 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $2,686 +$520 +19%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 19 $101 +$32 +32%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $2,255 +$299 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $206 +$137 +66%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,016 +$1,112 +109%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $901 +$684 +76%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 19 $2,005 +$958 +48%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $2,996 +$2,579 +86%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,798 −$1,774 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,019 −$650 -64%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,000 −$523 -52%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,133 −$1,117 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $997 +$1,136 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $1,018 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 22¢ $365 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 22¢ $1 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 40¢ $1,018 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 22¢ $1 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 22¢ $1 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 22¢ $1 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 22¢ $2 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 22¢ $80 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 22¢ $176 2h
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,093 3h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 19¢ $45 3h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 3h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 3h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 3h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 15¢ $361 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $551 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $1,012 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 29¢ $409 6h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $510 9h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 25¢ $511 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Alastair Gray 36¢ $510 12h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 47¢ $102 13h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc BUY Tamara Korpatsch 23¢ $102 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,424.42 · official $2,424.42 (match) · 102 history records