Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:49:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8d06…7910
sports · 51 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
−$4,529 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,865 · open −$80
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,957
Realized−$4,865
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses22 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$415
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage40d
Avg bet$684
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 1 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,774
7 days−$5,094
14 days−$5,104
30 days−$5,570
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 50¢ 50¢ $8,038 $7,957 −$80 (-1%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Over 57¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 3.5 Over 61¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 0¢ $280 $0 −$280 (-100%)
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-12? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-09? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $450 $0 −$450 (-100%)
Spread: Russia (-1.5) Burkina Faso 65¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Cavaliers 45¢ 0¢ $1,300 $0 −$1,300 (-100%)
Will AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Arsenal FC 37¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 58¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 38¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-10? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 60¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $930 −$930 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $1,259 +$2,775 +220%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $284 −$280 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $606 −$323 -53%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4,513 −$3,916 -87%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $608 −$600 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $460 −$450 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $255 −$250 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $506 +$371 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $1,519 +$1,109 +73%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 06 $509 −$500 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 06 $1,015 +$967 +95%
Spread: Russia (-1.5) Jun 05 $505 −$500 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 05 $507 +$472 +93%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 05 $49 +$50 +101%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 03 $506 −$500 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $506 +$327 +65%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 May 24 $506 +$371 +73%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 24 $203 +$267 +131%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $306 +$693 +226%
SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5 May 23 $507 −$500 -99%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5 May 22 $505 +$264 +52%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 20 $1,321 −$1,300 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5) May 18 $507 +$386 +76%
FC Volendam vs. Telstar 1963: O/U 2.5 May 17 $202 +$101 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $202 +$125 +62%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 3.5 May 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Southampton FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? May 12 $204 +$485 +238%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 12 $200 −$93 -47%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 11 $612 +$49 +8%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $404 +$220 +54%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 May 10 $102 −$34 -34%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 10 $204 −$200 -98%
Will AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice end in a draw? May 10 $204 −$200 -98%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-05-08? May 10 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? May 10 $204 +$536 +262%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $102 −$7 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 07 $209 −$209 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $202 +$131 +65%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $208 Week of May 4 2026? May 06 $103 +$317 +307%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $204 Week of May 4 2026? May 06 $316 +$357 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 05 $206 +$157 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% −$4,605
other 11% −$2,764
crypto 9% +$1,843
tech 1% +$673
world 1% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $8,158 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 3h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $263 5h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 28¢ $283 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $606 7h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 7¢ $597 7h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3,501 8h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1,017 17h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1,012 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -48.1% -53.0% 21% 21% -43.6%
≤30d 32 -10.9% -19.4% 44% 44% -31.9%
≤90d 50 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 42% -26.1%
all 50 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 42% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 42% -26.1%
10% -18.4% 42% -33.1%
15% -26.3% 42% -39.6%
20% -33.5% 40% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,957.45 · official $7,957.45 (match) · 120 history records