Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:39:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8d09…143f
weather · 440 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$30,143 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$30,862 · open −$42
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized+$30,862
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses268 / 165
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)433 / 440
History coverage28d
Avg bet$678
Trades / day112.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 7 History 433 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,231
7 days+$1,483
14 days+$3,410
30 days+$30,862
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $17 $3 −$14 (-80%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+62%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? No 0¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+83%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-81%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-80%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 8? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 5? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 11? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 8? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 8? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 9? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $326 $0 −$326 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 4? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 4? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 11? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 4? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 11? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 4? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $5 −$3 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$152 +635%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $224 +$557 +249%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $38 −$31 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $478 +$383 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 −$26 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $281 +$16 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $58 +$207 +357%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$24 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$47 +766%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $742 +$314 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$10 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$8 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $24 −$17 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$4 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $23 +$54 +237%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $17 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $33 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $15 +$3 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$8 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $67 −$25 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $23 −$9 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $14 −$9 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $22 −$19 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $22 −$21 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $293 +$56 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $10 −$4 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 95% +$30,803
crypto 5% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 40m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 SELL Yes 0¢ $1 43m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 0¢ $0 51m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 51m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 0¢ $0 52m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 55m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 58m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 75¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 77¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 63¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 60¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 60¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 45¢ $34 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+45.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -4.8% -13.8% 28% 20% +41.7%
≤30d 433 +61.1% +45.8% 62% 19% -3.4%
≤90d 433 +61.1% +45.8% 62% 19% -3.4%
all 433 +61.1% +45.8% 62% 19% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover112.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +45.8% 19% -3.4%
10% +31.8% 15% -12.6%
15% ← realistic here +19.1% 13% -21.0%
20% +7.4% 13% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.05 · official $7.81 (match) · 3500 history records