Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:47:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d0a…6520 crypto 535 markets active 3d ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-2%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%300W / 235L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$27
14 days−$44
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$94
sports 1% −$1
tech 0% +$4
other 0% +$37
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -12.6% -20.9% 60% 45% -20.2%
≤30d 348 -10.2% -18.8% 55% 45% -18.1%
≤90d 535 -6.7% -15.5% 56% 41% -14.5%
all 535 -6.7% -15.5% 56% 41% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 41% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 32% -22.7%
15% -31.0% 24% -30.2%
20% -37.8% 19% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses300 / 235
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)535 / 535
History coverage39d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 535 Trades
no open positions (189 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.19 · official $1.19 (match) · 1218 history records