Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:40:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8D 0x8d0c…0c48 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$163 (-25%) realized −$165 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$139
14 days−$175
30 days−$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -69.4% -72.3% 0% 0% -72.3%
≤30d 5 -19.6% -27.2% 40% 0% -37.0%
≤90d 5 -19.6% -27.2% 40% 0% -37.0%
all 5 -19.6% -27.2% 40% 0% -37.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 0% -37.0%
10% -34.2% 0% -43.0%
15% -40.6% 0% -48.6%
20% -46.4% 0% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$59 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$165
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage25d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $201 −$139 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $198 −$35 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $99 +$7 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 28 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $5 −$1 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.63 · official $101.63 (match) · 11 history records