Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8D 0x8d0e…b56e crypto 13 markets active 4d ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6 (+11%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$8
other 23% −$2
crypto 12% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -54.1% -58.5% 33% 33% -57.7%
≤30d 13 -24.7% -31.9% 46% 38% -1.6%
≤90d 13 -24.7% -31.9% 46% 38% -1.6%
all 13 -24.7% -31.9% 46% 38% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 38% -1.6%
10% -38.4% 38% -11.0%
15% -44.4% 31% -19.6%
20% -49.8% 15% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage20d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $21 +$1 +4%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $13 +$8 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +39%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $9 −$1 -7%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 100¢ $11 18d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 94¢ $10 18d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 88¢ $10 18d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 82¢ $10 18d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Gujarat Titans 16¢ $1 18d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 22¢ $1 18d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 100¢ $12 20d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 37¢ $0 20d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 38¢ $2 20d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 38¢ $1 20d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 38¢ $1 20d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 39¢ $1 20d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 61¢ $9 20d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 55¢ $8 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 21d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 21d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 22d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 18¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records