Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8d10…29e8
weather · 148 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$125 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$100 · open −$28
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$10
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses55 / 84
Open positions9
Markets (closed)139 / 148
Avg bet$7
Trades / day87.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 9 History 139 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$100
14 days−$100
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Yes 38¢ 39¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 9? No 79¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 10? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 10? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 10? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 11? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? No 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 10? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 11? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$12 +376%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$16 +190%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$2 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$6 +104%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $22 −$12 -54%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$10 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$2 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$8 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$15 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 +$14 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 +$3 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$4 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$3 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$6 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$5 -58%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$17 +817%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$2 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$12 +229%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$5 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$4 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$13 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 91% −$105
crypto 9% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 14m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 17m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 22m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 37m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 39m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? SELL Yes 85¢ $8 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 -12.4% -20.8% 40% 33% -19.4%
≤30d 139 -12.4% -20.8% 40% 33% -19.4%
≤90d 139 -12.4% -20.8% 40% 33% -19.4%
all 139 -12.4% -20.8% 40% 33% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover87.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 33% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 28% -27.2%
15% -35.3% 22% -34.2%
20% -41.6% 19% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.98 · official $10.35 (match) · 347 history records